This one sign means a downturn

Everywhere you look, there is commentary and predictions about a downturn or a recession.

Every day I ask my clients and other recruitment business owners whether they have felt any fall-off in job-order flow.

Logically, that’s the first sign of a decline in demand, and perhaps a warning of a downturn (or worse).

But the first sign of an impending slowdown doesn’t come from clients at all.

It comes from candidates.

We are all aware of skill shortages and the need for more candidates.

But the big sign you must watch for is this.

It’s when the candidates that you have ‘in play’, in other words, on interview, start to get cold feet, and pull out of the process.

That is the trend you should dread.

When candidates who were gung-ho and only recently confident, start to decline second interviews, ‘put things on hold’, or  ‘wait and see how the economy goes’, or disappear altogether.

It’s when those candidates start to tell you that they are withdrawing their applications. They are feeling nervous about the future. That is when you know the writing is on the wall.

And here is the latest news.

 It has started to happen in Australia.

For a period, recruiters might face the worst of both worlds.

Significant demand for candidates from clients in what is an already candidate- short market.

And then suddenly, that’s compounded by the candidates who are looking, withdrawing their interest, and going back into their shells.

So, owners of recruitment companies, as well as recruiters;

Monitor this trend if indeed that’s what it is.

Because the candidate who pulls the plug on their job -search, is not confident about their financial security. Perhaps their mortgage payments have increased, and the rising cost of living is biting.

And that candidate does not only stop looking for jobs, but also cut back on spending, which will impact corporations far and wide, who, in turn, as their revenues fall, will cut back on hiring.

Are candidates pulling back on you?

You should have started to flex your BD muscle already.

But if you see candidate behaviours shift as I outline, then you know.

It’s 5 minutes to midnight.

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